A Sort of Algorithm XI/Squad

Base of the best defences in terms of least goals conceded in the league (and to some extent underlying numbers) this season (mostly top 6).

Trent & Cancelo are the top 2 returners (defenders), Lamptey may get joy on the right against sides that have players missing/in mixed form/on their left. Jota plays Brentford and Bowen plays Leeds (concede a fair few away).

Tweet by The xG Philosophy (a few days old but gives a rough guide to how teams are defending and attacking).

Was tricky putting this together, hopefully it reads well (do one dyslexia!) and the (rough) numbers are pretty helpful.

Kane, Dennis, Ronaldo make a strong front 3 (high ownership/eo, arguably the most clinical attackers available at the moment and mainly face bottom half sides).

A bit different look this week (Gordon is startable against Norwich City but a sub, although Everton’s form is mixed and Norwich concede less at home than away, and a sub or two may be needed given what is going on with fixtures), but you know, there is some game theory in play with more defenders, form and fixtures (remember it is a rough team/squad and you can perhaps do better in some areas).

“There’s things I think, I hope and I know.” (an interesting line, to powerphrase, that may be of interest)

| Arguments To Free Hit/Use A Chip (As Things Stand) |

Spurs are unbeaten in the league under Conte and * may * face Arsenal at home with numerous injuries/players unavailable (although Arsenal have had better defensive numbers in recent weeks, deserve credit for how they defended with 10 players at Anfield and have better matches coming up).

Game theory (chance to play players with 2 matches & a chance to have Kane & Ronaldo in the very same GW).

Manchester United have lost only 2 matches away from home in the Premier League in 2021/22 .

Brighton have two home matches and are not involved in a GW soon/have away matches coming up.

Watford have decent ish matches (2) this GW but then get harder afterwards.

| Arguments Against FH |

• Decent fixtures for single GW teams, possibly of postponements & your team may be viable to not use it.

| Single GW Teams |

| Teams To Do Well |

West Ham United

Set to face Leeds United at home, only 3 teams have scored more goals than West Ham United in the league this season and are in decent form (next 3 home matches in the league are set to be Leeds United, Leicester City and Newcastle United in their next 3 home matches, as far as I know.)

Liverpool

• Face Brentford, who have just conceded 4 away at Southampton, and despite Liverpool being without Salah & Mané – have scored in every Premier League home match in 2021/22

| Players To (Possibly) Do Well |

Antonio (middleweight)

• 5 goals at home in the league this season and is one of the highest creators of chances this season.

Bowen (middleweight)

• Highest assister in the league this season, gets in decent positions (goes a bit central sometimes) and continues to have impressive underlying numbers.

Maddison (middleweight)

• Set pieces and in form but may be without an out and out number 9 to play off and has one less game and faces an unbeaten Spurs (in the league) but is viable moving forward (perhaps, can do it on his day)

Trossard (middleweight)

Brighton’s main attacker, gets in to different positions in the final third and has decent fixtures moving forward.

Jota (middleweight)

• 2nd top scorer in the Premier League in 2021/22.

• Has decent underlying numbers.

| DGW Teams |

| Teams To Do Well |

Brighton (Yes And No, But Mainly Yes, I Sort of Fancy Them)

• 2 home matches, quietly in a bit of form (2 wins from their previous 3, 3 wins in their previous 4 all comps) and have more possession than the opposition in most matches (can be a form of attack and a form of defence).

• Face a Crystal Palace side that has conceded in most away matches in the league (their xG conceded is reasonable but they do have players missing).

• Unbeaten at in all but 3 home matches in the league.

• Fresh, tougher to beat at home.

Spurs

• Unbeaten under Conte, in the top 6 for best defence in terms of goals conceded and have a strong home record (facing an Arsenal side with numerous players unavailable and after a tough 90 minutes at Anfield).

Manchester United

| Teams To Possibly To Do Well |

Leicester City (Schmeichel, Maddison, Tielemans, Lookman)

Watford (Dennis/King)

| Heavy Hitters |

Kane

Spurs’ main threat, 3 goals in his previous 4 league matches, getting in to decent positions and may be able to get joy against sides that have numerous key (defensive/defensive minded) players out.

Ronaldo

Second for shots on target per game (think I am right in saying) may well be fresh having not featured in his side’s 1-0 FA Cup win against Aston Villa and only 3 players have scored more league goals than him this season (using that stat again, but you know, I need something to say).

Bruno Fernandes

• 2nd for chances created in the Premier League in 2021/22 (credit to Sky Sports News).

| Middleweights |

| Possible Differentials |

Cucharella (home matches, gets forward a fair bit and has a decent cross on him).

Cresswell (back fit, nice home fixtures and a differential possibly with set pieces and has a pacey cross on him).

Mac Allister

Wood

With Trippier providing from the right and/or on set pieces, and Watford having not kept a clean sheet in the league this season (plus Masina and Troost-Ekong being at AFCON), the New Zealand international (has at least 10 league goals to his name in recent seasons) will surely fancy his chances of scoring another home goal.

Gordon

Playing Norwich City away from home, comes off the back of a brace in DGW21 and looks bright (getting in to decent positions).

| Teams/Players To Look Out For After DGW22 |

Arsenal

Aston Villa

Brighton

Everton

Leicester City

Liverpool

Manchester United

Spurs

West Ham United

Wolves

Trippier (better fixtures, set pieces and if Newcastle United get a centre back or a midfielder in, in the transfer market), Tierney, Digne, Gordon, Doucoure, Calvert-Lewin, Coutinho, Watkins/Ings, Antonio